Document Type

Thesis

Date of Award

5-31-1987

Degree Name

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering - (M.S.)

Department

Electrical Engineering

First Advisor

Walid Hubbi

Second Advisor

Edwin Cohen

Abstract

This thesis describes and examines a technique which permits the power flow problem in a power system to be analyzed probabilistically. Both the deterministic and the probabilistic power flow theories have been presented. A mathematical model and a program have been developed to carry out the probabilistic power flow calculation. Two power systems and seven different loading cases have been used to test the technique. The results including the sensitivity coefficient matrices, the expected line flows with their variances, and 25 of 176 probability density function curves, have been shown and discussed. An easy way to predict the possible abnormal behavior in line flows is shown. The sources of the abnormal probability density functions of the line flows are explained. It can be concluded that the potentials and the advantages of using probabilistic load flow analysis are not fully utilized by the electrical power industry.

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