A CIA-ISM scenario approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

11-1-2015

Abstract

This is the first paper to apply a combination of HAZOP and Risk Consequence Matrix plus Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. This combination of methods allow obtain more information than using HAZOP and Risk Consequence Matrix because upgrades the individual risk analysis with the correlation between risks. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization's risks. The paper summarizes the development of the combination of this methods of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company's own estimations as well as the estimates of an expert panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected/unprepared effects and have a better response making better decisions after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.

Identifier

84947614099 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2015.07.016

ISSN

09521976

First Page

289

Last Page

302

Volume

46

Grant

APPC1214089

Fund Ref

Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación

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