Development of a partial proportional odds model for pedestrian injury severity at intersections

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-1-2020

Abstract

Pedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signal-ized intersections were applied. A Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model was developed to examine the factors influencing Pedestrian Injury Severity (PIS) because it can accommodate the ordered response nature of injury severity. An elasticity analysis was conducted to quan-tify the marginal effects of contributing factors on the likelihood of PIS. For signalized intersections, seven explanatory variables significantly affect the likelihood of PIS, in which five explanatory variables violate the Proportional Odds Assumption (POA). Local driver, truck, holiday, clear weather, and hit-and-run lead to higher likelihood of severer PIS. For non-signalized intersec-tions, six explanatory variables were found significant to the PIS, in which three explanatory variables violate the POA. Young and adult drivers, senior pedestrian, bus/ van, divided road, holiday, and darkness tend to increase the likelihood of severer PIS. The vehicles of large size and heavy weight (e.g. truck, bus/van) are significant factors to the PIS at both signalized and non-signalized in-tersections. The proposed PPO model has demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying the effects of contributing factors on the PIS.

Identifier

85089376610 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Promet Traffic and Transportation

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v32i4.3428

ISSN

03535320

First Page

559

Last Page

571

Issue

4

Volume

32

Grant

18YJCZH130

Fund Ref

Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS