From Fitting the Average to Fitting the Individual: A Cautionary Tale for Mathematical Modelers
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
4-28-2022
Abstract
An outstanding challenge in the clinical care of cancer is moving from a one-size-fits-all approach that relies on population-level statistics towards personalized therapeutic design. Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool in treatment personalization, as it allows for the incorporation of patient-specific data so that treatment can be tailor-designed to the individual. Herein, we work with a mathematical model of murine cancer immunotherapy that has been previously-validated against the average of an experimental dataset. We ask the question: what happens if we try to use this same model to perform personalized fits, and therefore make individualized treatment recommendations? Typically, this would be done by choosing a single fitting methodology, and a single cost function, identifying the individualized best-fit parameters, and extrapolating from there to make personalized treatment recommendations. Our analyses show the potentially problematic nature of this approach, as predicted personalized treatment response proved to be sensitive to the fitting methodology utilized. We also demonstrate how a small amount of the right additional experimental measurements could go a long way to improve consistency in personalized fits. Finally, we show how quantifying the robustness of the average response could also help improve confidence in personalized treatment recommendations.
Identifier
85130187530 (Scopus)
Publication Title
Frontiers in Oncology
External Full Text Location
https://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.793908
e-ISSN
2234943X
Volume
12
Grant
OAC-1826915
Fund Ref
National Science Foundation
Recommended Citation
Luo, Michael C.; Nikolopoulou, Elpiniki; and Gevertz, Jana L., "From Fitting the Average to Fitting the Individual: A Cautionary Tale for Mathematical Modelers" (2022). Faculty Publications. 2999.
https://digitalcommons.njit.edu/fac_pubs/2999