Predicting the Impact of Multiple Risks on Project Performance: A Scenario-Based Approach

Authors

Victor A. Bañuls, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, de Sevilla
Cristina López, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, de Sevilla
Murray Turoff, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Fernando Tejedor, MSIG Smart Management

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-1-2017

Abstract

This article suggests a scenario-based approach to properly managing risks during the lifetime of a project. Our proposal aims at giving managers a structured process to predicting the impact of the occurrence of multiple risks that can affect project performance. This is a product of combining Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) mechanics, which improve the predictive capacity of existing risk analysis techniques. In order to validate their risk predictions, we compare them with a sample of real projects carried out in an engineering company. The findings show a high explanatory capacity to forecast project risk influences.

Identifier

85039173693 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Project Management Journal

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1177/875697281704800507

e-ISSN

19389507

ISSN

87569728

First Page

95

Last Page

114

Issue

5

Volume

48

Recommended Citation

Bañuls, Victor A.; López, Cristina; Turoff, Murray; and Tejedor, Fernando, "Predicting the Impact of Multiple Risks on Project Performance: A Scenario-Based Approach" (2017). Faculty Publications. 9280.
https://digitalcommons.njit.edu/fac_pubs/9280