Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2021

Abstract

In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed by the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is more significant after considering incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from it. We extend the analysis to each individual NYC borough. We also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and cases. We also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths might have occurred.

Identifier

85099232392 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Infectious Disease Modelling

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.006

ISSN

24680427

First Page

183

Last Page

194

Volume

6

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