Memory in returns and volatilities of futures' contracts

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2000

Abstract

Various authors claim to have found evidence of stochastic long-memory behavior in futures' contract returns using the Hurst statistic. This paper reexamines futures' returns for evidence of persistent behavior using a biased-corrected version of the Hurst statistic, a nonparametric spectral test, and a spectral-regression estimate of the long-memory parameter. Results based on these new methods provide no evidence for persistent behavior in futures' returns. However, they provide overwhelming evidence of long-memory behavior for the volatility of futures' returns. This finding adds to the emerging literature on persistent volatility in financial markets and suggests the use of new methods of forecasting volatility, assessing risk, and optimizing portfolios in futures' markets. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:525-543, 2000.

Identifier

0034415717 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Journal of Futures Markets

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1002/1096-9934(200007)20:6<525::AID-FUT2>3.0.CO;2-T

ISSN

02707314

First Page

525

Last Page

543

Issue

6

Volume

20

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