Statistical assessment of photospheric magnetic features in imminent solar flare predictions

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2009

Abstract

In this study we use the ordinal logistic regression method to establish a prediction model, which estimates the probability for each solar active region to produce X-, M-, or C-class flares during the next 1-day time period. The three predictive parameters are (1) the total unsigned magnetic flux T flux, which is a measure of an active region's size, (2) the length of the strong-gradient neutral line L gnl, which describes the global nonpotentiality of an active region, and (3) the total magnetic dissipation E diss, which is another proxy of an active region's nonpotentiality. These parameters are all derived from SOHO MDI magnetograms. The ordinal response variable is the different level of solar flare magnitude. By analyzing 174 active regions, L gnl is proven to be the most powerful predictor, if only one predictor is chosen. Compared with the current prediction methods used by the Solar Monitor at the Solar Data Analysis Center (SDAC) and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the ordinal logistic model using L gnl, T flux, and E diss as predictors demonstrated its automatic functionality, simplicity, and fairly high prediction accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first time the ordinal logistic regression model has been used in solar physics to predict solar flares. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Identifier

57849161901 (Scopus)

Publication Title

Solar Physics

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-008-9288-3

e-ISSN

1573093X

ISSN

00380938

First Page

101

Last Page

125

Issue

1

Volume

254

Grant

NNG0-5GN34G

Fund Ref

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

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