Forecasting new adoptions: A comparative evaluation of three techniques of parameter estimation

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-1-2009

Abstract

Forecasting sales for an innovation before the product's introduction is a necessary but difficult task. Forecasting is a crucial analytic tool when assessing the business case for internal or external investments in new technologies. For early stage investments or internal business cases for new products, it is essential to have some understanding of the likely diffusion of the technology. Diffusion of innovation models are important tools for effectively assessing the merits of investing in technologies that are new or novel and do not have prima facie, predictable patterns of user uptake. Most new product forecasting models require the estimation of parameters for use in the models. In this chapter, we evaluate three techniques to determine the parameters of the Bass diffusion model by using an example of a new movie. © 2009 byEmeraldGroupPublishingLimited.

Identifier

84886255803 (Scopus)

ISBN

[9781848555488]

Publication Title

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2009)0000006006

ISSN

14774070

First Page

81

Last Page

91

Volume

6

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