Integrating Benefit-Cost Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation to Prioritize Flood Mitigation Projects and Model Flood-Related Uncertainties

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

1-1-2024

Abstract

Historic and recent flood events show how susceptible communities are to floods. In the future, it is anticipated that areas prone to flooding will see a substantial increase in population density, which increases the damages of flooding events. In addition, climate change and rising sea levels may increase the frequency and severity of large-scale floods. This reflects that flood mitigation projects need to be properly planned and implemented. Hence, this paper aims to identify cost-effective flood mitigation measures for possible implementation in Essex County, New Jersey. First, the benefits were quantified for three potential flood mitigation measures/projects: elevation, wet floodproofing, and dry floodproofing under different scenarios. Second, the costs were estimated for the different alternative flood mitigating measures. Third, benefit-cost analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were conducted to select the most cost-effective measure(s). The results showed that while wet floodproofing and dry floodproofing might be more cost-effective than elevation, they do not provide the same protection level as elevation measures. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a framework that helps communities make informed decisions about their flood-related risks and money and prioritize projects to decrease flood losses by increasing the level of protection against flood hazards.

Identifier

85188680151 (Scopus)

ISBN

[9780784485279]

Publication Title

Construction Research Congress 2024, CRC 2024

External Full Text Location

https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784485279.026

First Page

247

Last Page

256

Volume

2

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