Date of Award
Doctor of Engineering Science in Civil Engineering
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Harold D. Deutschman
Frederick G. Lehman
Eugene H. Smithberg
P. A. Fox
This dissertation describes a computer simulation model of a central city with emphasis on its application to Newark, New Jersey. The work begins with a review of the Forrester Urban Dynamics Model; the first attempt to simulate the entire system of the city. The objections to this model which have appeared in the literature are discussed, and the model is viewed in the light of other work in the field. A set of guidelines to aid the "second generation" model building effort is developed. The actual construction of a model which attempts to follow these guidelines is described. First, the logical basis for the inputs and outputs of the model is presented, and then the algorithms which make up the four sectors of the model are described in detail. These sectors include sub-models dealing with the city's Housing, Households, Jobs, and Government. Relevant data and appropriate connections with urban literature are presented. Next a "standard run" of the model is described. This run was made with data from Newark to achieve a partial model calibration, and to examine the future impact of existing policies. Various alternative programs leading to the arbitrary goal of "city stability" are examined. It is found that substantial changes in public policy would be necessary to achieve this goal. Finally, suggestions for the further development of large scale urban simulation models are made.
Schaper, Leonard William Jr., "A simulation modeling approach to central city dynamics" (1973). Dissertations. 1289.